[Local-Maine-Schools] statistical malpractice

[Brian Hubbell]

Gail,

You know me well enough to know that I'm not interested in advocating
the NCLB worldview -- at least I hope you do.

What I do advocate only is recognizing that there should be more to
evaluating educational policy decision-making than straight per-pupil
costs. I think that's exactly what you're advocating as well.

It bugs me no end to hear legislators talking about modeling
"high-performing, efficient districts" without acknowledging that what
they're suggesting assumes the fallacy that you can maximize functions
with multiple dependent variables.

--Brian

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On 4/9/07, Gail Marshall <gmarshall at wildmoo.net> wrote:
> Brian,
> I ask you consider for a moment your assertion regarding graduation
> rates. Public schools have to play the hand they are dealt. Some are
> in areas where there is higher income, higher educational attainment
> among the population as a whole, higher expectations of schools, and
> greater opportunity to provide the resources to make graduation a
> more likely outcome. Sure the quality of the education provided is
> critical, but a school with a higher graduation rate may be as much a
> recipient of good luck than anything else. Further, making the per
> pupil cost look artificially high by focusing on graduation rates
> sounds to me a bit like NCLB punishing schools who fail to make AYP
> by cutting funding despite the fact they have much bigger problems in
> their communities and much fewer resources than other schools. It
> strikes me that the decision to focus on graduation rates is yet
> another example of shallow bean counting rather than a reasoned
> discussion of what students need to succeed.
> They are having a debate in Portland now. There are two high schools:
> Deering, in the suburbs, and Portland, in the center of the city.
> Apparently the board does a strict cost per pupil division of money.
> In my decades long memory, Deering has always been regarded the
> better school.  Teachers at Portland High argue that since their
> school is full of a greater percentage of poor kids, many of whom now
> are refugees, and/or ELL students,  and a higher percentage of whom
> bring serious problems to school every day, they must have a higher
> per pupil investment in order to succeed. Makes sense to me.
> Of course this is not unique to education. There are some statistics
> that show some doctors' patients have higher mortality rates. Bad
> doctors? Maybe. But more often it's because they are the best doctors
> who take care of the most critically ill patients. Same problem.
> Gail